Crystal Ball Gazing
The political scene in India has
become very chaotic and seems pregnant with all kinds of possibilities. Ever
since the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) lost in the general elections of 2004,
they have been smarting under the loss and not been able to come to grips with
reality.
The Congress sprung a surprise on
them in spite of ‘India Shinning’ campaign of the BJP and the results equally
surprised the Congress. Ever since, the BJP has been hoping to regain power and
waited their opportunity in the next general elections of 2009. But alas they
were crestfallen and the Congress alliance came back to power on the basis of
strong social sector reforms. The BJP being doubly hurt resorted to all kinds
of obstructions to wreak havoc on the ruling party and its image and force
elections. In the ensuing muddle it was the country’s image that took a bashing
and the economy has come to naught.
In fighting within the Congress ministers
didn’t help matters and the economy has suffered as a result. Cabinet Ministers
were seen to be at loggerheads with each other with regard to the growth
trajectory and its implementation. There seemed to be a huge divide among
prominent schools of thought seemingly pulling in different directions. Scams
and government paralysis has hampered growth and added to its woes forcing the
Congress to take cover under past initiatives. But it looks like they have this
time lost the plot in spite of the Food Security Bill looking increasingly
possible. Today the country stands at the threshold of another general election
and everybody is doing crystal ball gazing to lay bare the possibilities.
Election surveys conducted by all
major agencies have concluded that the country is headed for a fractured
mandate threatening the future of political parties and their leaders. Here I
am going to stick my neck out and make my conclusion on the likely scenario,
while pointing out the generalized possibilities and what may come of it,
thereby engaging in some crystal ball gazing.
1. The
regional parties clobber around 240 seats leaving them within striking distance
of the simple majority of 272 which is when either of the two major political
parties step in with outside support.
2. The
BJP and the Congress will be left with around 150 seats each, way off the
qualifying mark of 272 which becomes increasingly difficult to achieve.
Regional parties will want their pound of flesh and therefore it would be
prudent for major parties to support a regional coalition which can be
dispensed with at a time of their choosing.
This is where all worthy
predictions converge, with the likely scenario being a confederation of
regional parties forming a government with likely support from either of the
two major parties.
Now I am going to hazard a guess
and predict beyond, that this shaky and unstable coalition will not last for
more than a year, during which time the economic condition of the country will
turn worse and another election will have to be forced on the country sometime
in 2015.
Here is where I predict the appearance
of Priyanka Gandhi who will take over the reins of the Congress campaign
committee and bring the Congress back to power albeit with the support of
alliance partners and other regional parties.
Ms Sonia Gandhi, will fade into
the background due to health reasons and Mr Rahul Gandhi will be happy with the
party and stay out of power as he has always professed. The brother sister duo
will lead the country, as prime minister and party chief. Whether this will
spell improvement for the country is another question and what happens to
growth and acceleration of economy is best left for another day since world
factors will play a very crucial part.
Where does Modi fare in all this?
Alas he will be left stranded more so because he happens to represent a party
that cannot think out of the contours of religious compulsions and the people
of this country abhor such divisive practices in modern times.
Already the rumblings of war are
heard on the horizon and should the Americans or NATO forces rain missiles on
Syria, all hell will break loose and we will be looking to years of gloom both
domestically and internationally irrespective of who makes it to the seat of
power.
Robin Varghese
28th August 2013
No comments:
Post a Comment