Where do we go from
here
Between Civilian, Military or religiously
backed government - Yes Egypt is today caught in the cross hairs of this
history making decision. Hosni Mubarak was removed by the majority sans the
army where protests were equally participative with the National Salvation
Front, Tamarod and the Muslim Brotherhood and other fringe parties all
participating in his removal.
As Mubarak exited, there was an
air of triumph at the success of a revolution that had captured the imagination
of the whole of Egypt and beyond in the Arab world. Parallels were seen to be
drawn in the region with other countries seemingly wishing democracy was so
easy. The aversion to democracy which is age old and entrenched in the Arab psychic
seemed erased and a new beginning was just right for the modern and social
networking Arab young.
Protesting and removing a
military dictator is only a job well begun, what was more important was for the
country to be able to group together minus the military and find an amicable
front that could lead the country out of its present predicament and show the
way to the rest of the Arab brethren. Alas, that is where the plot fails as
after Mubarak’s exit, the Muslim Brotherhood an organisation that was passively
existent during the Mubarak era but which had a huge following marshalled on
religious lines and thus being fully fortified and organised for elections had
only to resurrect its dormant organisational infrastructure to capture power.
The other groups, splintered
amongst themselves unable to form a single united opposition and thus the
advantage passed on to the Muslim Brotherhood. There is something unique to
religious bodies in that they are a hugely united house based on religion which
fortunately or unfortunately depending on the circumstances is a great unifier
world over. Rarely does anyone disagree on religion anywhere in the world and
that is why religious mandates are easily carried forward and any consolidation
on religious grounds or which is backed by religion based parties always has a
huge and unified following especially in the Arab countries.
Likewise when the population
divided itself into blocs on voting day, it was squarely divided between the
religious parties of the Muslim Brotherhood on the one hand and the splinter
non-religious sub groups on the other. Obviously the opponents of religious
group were divided according to party, agenda, scope, past history etc. while
the Muslim Brotherhood stood as one solid bloc of religiously inclined
citizens. They won though with a thin
majority but with it began the solidification of the party on its religious
lines based on the Sharia and away from problems and troubles of the common
man.
The country dips on all
parameters of economic progress and the people get frustrated. This time the
opposition unified along with the army and security establishment, to chase out
the democratically elected government. Between religion, civilian and military,
the balance of power will always suit the sum total of the two combinations
which is larger than the third. In 2011 the religious and civilian forces got
together to oust the military. In 2013 the civilian and the military got
together to root out the religious.
Where will Egypt go from here, is
not a million dollar question but what is a tricky question to answer is
whether the present combination will last its course and for how long. What is
absolutely certain is that this dispensation will hold as long as there are no
fissures in any one of them and as long as the civilian groups need to have the
overt and tactical support of the security agencies.
As far as the religious backed
Muslim Brotherhood is concerned it may well have to go back to its pre 2011
position of subversive activities and covert operations even while trying to
hold on as a party albeit with a diminished majority waiting and hoping that a
new morrow will somehow help it to regain its popularity base, even while
working at home to instil in themselves a better understanding of running a
government should there be another chance. My guess is as good as yours.
Robin Varghese
17th August 2013
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